I’ve gotten a couple questions about keepers this week. We also had discussions in one of my leagues about what the keeper process will be like. There are a lot of different strategies.
I’ve got a wedding this weekend and I’m in the wedding party. I don’t consider myself ever being close to getting married. I’m sure if you ask some of my ex’s they would disagree but whatever, if I wanted their opinions on it, I’d be reading their articles.
Anyways, commiting is hard to do. Is it better to play it safe or go for the exciting crazy one? In my opinion, I’ll eventually settle down with a safe girl. One I can bring home to mom, and makes me happy (even though my dating life points towards the crazies). The wedding I’m going to is high school sweethearts who have been together as long as I’ve known them. They are playing it safe. Not that it’s a bad thing. It’s good for them. They are happy. They are good for each other. I’m sure dating Lindsay Lohan would be fun for a little while, but in the long run wouldn’t we all be happier with Mandy Moore?
(Ok, maybe I would marry Lohan)
When it comes to keepers, is it better to play it safe or go for the wild crazy one? I mean this more in sense of values. I try to play it safe. I think now is the best time to go for it too. Every team I’ve talked to at this point would rather get the better, much more expensive player now, instead of the much cheaper, slightly lesser of a player as a keeper. That’s crazy too me. I’m all about value.
(A good keeper is hard to find, sometimes you think you have a keeper and then you catch the early flight home from San Diego, turn on the game, and visanthe shiancoe is hanging out nude like a goddamn magic show ready to handle the game ball…)
In one league I’m in we have two IR spots. When Ryan Grant got dropped. I got him on a 5$ (out of 200$ total) waiver claim. Stashed him on my IR. So next year I have a top 10 (top 15 at worst) RB for 5 dollars. Now I’m going to completely contradict myself here. I tried to shop him around to 0-3 teams. These are teams that really need to turn their season around or try to stock up for future years. I’m 3-0, so I’ve decided that I should try to make a run at this year while not screwing my future. I still have good/cheap keeper options if I trade Grant. No one had interest. They say “I have interest in next year, sure, but I’ve got to worry about this year”. Yeah sure, you can try to improve and still not make the playoffs, or you could trade someone like a 35$ Mike Sims-Walker, who at this point would be a waste to keep and get a 5$ Grant for next year. Especially if you don’t have anyone in your RBs that you could keep.
The same goes for big money guys. There is one team that spent 91$ on Chris Johnson and 90$ on Stephen Jackson. Our draft budget is 220$ next year. If he keeps them both that leaves 39$ next year to fill 12 more roster spots. That’s 3.25 per remaining spot. If you want a decent QB that will be more than half of your 39$ as well. Some people choose to fill their rosters that way. That’s fine, it doesn’t make sense to me though. You’d have to hit on all of your sleepers. If I were them I’d try to trade the often injured Stephen Jackson for 2 or 3 guys I could start every week and that would be high upside cheap keepers.
(Deez: Hey, I just want to thank you one last time for being here. It’s the best day ever.
Mike: Don’t even start with me, Deez, okay? You need to walk away from this ASAP.
Mike: You need to get out, Deez. This is it. It’s now or never. You need to get out of here before you keep MJD for 104$.)
So what I suggest you do now is get cheap keepers. Once you do, do one of the following things. Keep them if you’re team isn’t doing great. Or trade them to someone who’s in rough shape and could build your leagues dynasty of the future. A 50$ Shonne Greene, 30$ Spiller or a 30$ Crabtree might not be as appealing to their owners anymore, so if you can give them a 1$ Aaron hernandez and a 5$ Ryan Grant or something, it might be somewhere to start negotiations.
Some high priced guys you might want to try to go after because of their low value. DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, CJ Spiller, Larry Fitzgerald, Ricky Williams, Jerome Harrison, Ryan Mathews, Dwayne Bowe, Brett Favre, Shonn Greene, Jamaal Charles, Michael Crabtree, Marques Colston. These are all guys that probably won’t get kept at the price they were drafted at. You should bring that to the owner’s attention. Especially if you have value to send to them. This is a win now strategy because you shouldn’t keep them at their price either.
Some guys that are probably bargains at the price they were bought: Darren McFadden, Matt Forte, Josh Freeman, Mike Williams (TB), Vincent Jackson, Thomas Jones, Kyle Orton, Aaron Hernandez, Louis Murphy, Santonio Holmes, Marshawn Lynch, Dez Bryant, Ahmad Bradshaw.
Unfortunately most people don’t think big picture. I’m all about big picture. This is easy for me to say right now because I’m 3-0 in all my leagues, but if I was 0-3 I’d already be planning on how to stock up who I deem to be the best 5 valued sleepers next year. You could be stacked for years at the expense of this one year.
Pick ups of the week
A lot of these guys are repeats on my list because they are all still so readily avaliable
Dustin Keller - It seems like he’s the #1 target in NY. I wrote about him last week, not much has changed except more evidence supporting his case. After this week Holmes will come back but I still expect Keller to be the #1 guy.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis - Pats RBs going down. Right now he’s almost all that they have.
Brandon Lloyd - He’s still available in over 50% of ESPN leagues. He’s averaging over 100 yards a game.
Peyton Hillis - No doubt the #1 guy in cleveland. He tore up the Ravens D.
Mike Nugent - A kicker, I know but he’s the #1 K right now. He’s owned in under 40% of leagues. That means 60% of fantasy owners can upgrade their kicker.
Mark Clayton - WTF? If you haven’t listened to me by now on him, you’re not going to.
Aaron Hernandez - Good young receiving TE. He’s everything they hoped Ben Watson would be, and more.
Louis Murphy - He’s getting a lot of targets. Maybe the QB change will help him too.
John Kuhn - OK maybe Barndon Jackson isn’t as good as everyone had hoped. Kuhn is getting the short yardage carries, maybe more.
Kyle Orton - This is not a fluke. Get him on your roster, if he’s your backup, you’re in great shape at qb.
Demaryius Thomas - He’s dinged up and not consistent but I love his upside.
I’m not dead yet!
These are guys that if they don’t have a solid game next week they will be dead to me. Basically guys that are sucking, but bigger names than the next list so they have hope of bouncing back.
Tony Gonzalez, C.J. Spiller, Dwayne Bowe (Bye), Marques Colston, Jason Witten (Bye), Ricky Williams, Brett Favre.
These are the guys that I said needed to have a good week or else they’d be dead to me.
Jonathan Stewart, Tony Gonzalez, C.J. Spiller, Dwayne Bowe, Lee Evans, Shonn Greene, Marion Barber.
Stewart, Evans, Green, & Barber didn’t do much to save themselves.
You’re dead to me!
If these guys are free agents I wouldn’t even consider picking them up. (in addition to last weeks list)
Devin Aromashodu, Garrett Hartley, Steve Slaton, Felix Jones, Jonathan Stewart.
(P.S. Ryan Grant, you’re no Mandy Mo’)
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